Phil Taller A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert A Commentary N/A Jun 28, 2013

We've seen a big rally from the bottoms of liberation day in early April, almost 20% in the S&P. On the S&P, we're now in positive territory YTD. The TSX is up 3% YTD.

She gets that the worst-case scenario is no longer priced into the market with the 90-day pause on tariffs. But there's still a lot more to unfold. When she looks at the economy, the data coming out is not looking great. It's mixed, at best. Then there are other things like increasing geopolitical risk. 

In Canada, consumer confidence is coming down. Housing starts are the lowest they've been since 2009. Job numbers are not great, unemployment is starting to tick up, and that's without the impact of tariffs yet. Highly indebted consumer. Mortgage prices will come up as they get rolled over.

In the US, consumer confidence has really plummeted since Trump was elected. Retail numbers were OK, but the number released this morning reflects a lot of pre-tariff surge in buying. Manufacturing is in contraction territory.

The economy is murky at best. We're already seeing softening GDP numbers in both Canada and the US. She wouldn't be surprised if Canada's already in a recession or at the start of one, and we're just waiting for those data prints to come out. In the US employment's still strong, but the main hiring has been done by government; with DOGE, not sure if government jobs are going to come to the rescue this time.

Not much to be excited about with respect to the overall market. But there are particular areas of the market she's excited about, which are more conservative and stable. That's where she's putting her focus.

On the overall market optimism, she and her team are a bit skeptical.

Doesn't own any right now. She's not confident on consumer spending and the retail space. The rental space would be interesting, but none of the particular companies capture her attention yet. Industrials already had their day during the pandemic -- cheap space, easy to replicate, and prices will come down.

Hard not to own them, but she is underweight the sector. There's going to be some increase to credit loss provisions. Set up well for a recession in Canada, but she'll be keeping her eye on any particular weaknesses this quarter.

No idea. We've got a slowing US economy, which is a major trading partner, and tariffs. After the talks between US and China, everyone saw that as a buying opportunity and the market's rallied ever since. You can see that clearly in the chart for the TSX. 

But when you look at slowing economy, quantities of debt, unemployment, and deteriorating credit metrics, this is probably a time to take some profits rather than adding extra exposure. The optimism isn't warranted at all.

The Trump presidency has been a chaos magnet, and what it's done is to reprice some sectors. There was a buying opportunity about 6 weeks ago. If you participated in that, you've been well rewarded. But it looks as though the market's ahead of itself.

If we don't get interest rate cuts, we're going to see more unemployment and problems with company balance sheets. There are problems out there, and the Chinese tariff deal hasn't changed that.

That's probably the $1M question. A tariff is effectively inflation. Could take 1-2 quarters to hit. Rising prices will put companies under pressure. We're seeing companies that were marginally profitable already start to cut employees. Some boards are making opportunistic cuts. CEOs are being replaced. 

Tariffs will be a catalyst for other changes to occur. It's providing cover for a lot of activity that's probably been needed for quite some time.

April Market Recap

The TSX Index was down -0.30% in the month of April, up 0.46% YTD and 14.40% over the past year. Canadian GDP was up 0.6% in the fourth quarter of 2025 and 2.40% for the full year; in the USA the GDP was up 2.4% for the fourth quarter and 2.50% for the full year. Canadian inflation rate was 2.30% annually in April 2025 and the US annual rate was 2.40% in April 2025. 

The best performer of April was Galaxy Digital Holdings Ltd (GLXY) whose stock price was up 44.5% on the month, down -12.3% year-to-date, and up 81.2% over the past year.

The second best performer of April was Andlauer Healthcare Group Inc (AND) whose stock price was up 37.2% on the month, up 26.8% year-to-date, and up 28.3% over the past year.

The third best performer of April was Kinaxis Inc (KXS) whose stock price was up 17.3% on the month, up 7.5% year-to-date, and up 27.0% over the past year.
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She says the S&P large-cap chart shows the start of a bullish cycle--unconfirmed. Confirmation will be the 13-week moving average crossing above the 26- and 40-week moving averages, which is asking a lot. The S&P needs to make 6,000, and 6,147 is the Ceiling of Uncertainty. A bullish indicator, though, is the MACD has made a bullish crossover. On the S&P equal-weighted index, she says the S&P is moving in the right direction, but the chart must break above its Ceiling Resistance from 7,333-7,0421. But the MACD line is bullish. Thirdly, the XLK is in the early days of a bullish cycle, but the chart must break the Ceiling of $230-237; we're in the middle of that range now. Also, the MACD shows a bullish crossover. However, treasury yields need to go lower, not higher; 4.8% would be a dangerous level.